theweatherprediction.com
[--MAIN HOME--] [--ALL HABYHINTS--] [--FACEBOOK PAGE--]

THE ART OF FORECASTING

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

Forecasting is both a science and an art. To be a great forecaster, the meteorologist needs to have skills in weather pattern recognition, skilled at deciphering interactions of many variables (3-D view of the atmosphere), have an almost instant interpretation of model and analysis charts and a strong will to learn from forecast failures. Once meteorology "theory" is learn, on the job experience with effortful forecasting is critical to fully developing forecasting skill and the artistic skill of forecasting. Each of the following are artistic talents which apply to forecasting:

(1) weather pattern recognition
(2) Putting a forecast into words that are understandable to the general public
(3) Seeing the atmosphere in 3-D in the mind
(4) Visualizing atmospheric processes in your mind (putting atmosphere into motion)
(5) Correlating thermodynamic indices with the expected weather
(6) Making weather graphics
(7) intuition (the 6th sense)
(8) The use a language to describe the weather, catchy phrases and stories
(9) Experience

It is important to develop a forecasting "method". A "method" is a step by step approach to analyzing the weather data each day. Over time you will discover how well your method forecasts the weather in different forecasting situations. A forecasting method along with keeping a journal of the accuracy or inaccuracy of your forecasts will be beneficial. Forecast inaccuracies can be corrected with experience to improve the forecast method.