|FORECAST BUST: UNCERTAINTY
METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY
This series of Haby Hints investigates problems that cause a forecast to bust. A bust occurs when a
certain weather parameter is expected but one or more factors cause the forecast to be wrong. This
particular Haby Hint will focus on how uncertainty causes forecast problems.
1. It is assumed that your weather analysis and forecast will be based on accurate weather data. If
any weather sensor has error it will impact your ability to make the best possible forecast.
2. Forecasts that do not account for uncertainty (such as not giving a percentage of likely occurrence) will
often bust if you forecast that an event will certainly occur or will not certainly occur
at a point location.
hurricane landfall location forecast,
severe storm threat,
winter weather precipitation type
surface boundaries, etc, all have varying degrees of uncertainty.
3. There is uncertainty in how people will interpret the forecast. A forecast can bust from it being
interpreted improperly by another person. It is important to communicate the forecast completely,
coherently and correctly.