When forecasting it is important to not bias the data being interpreted toward verifying weather wishes. Look for the ingredients both that will cause a weather event to occur and the ingredients that will prevent a weather event from occurring. The two weather events meteorologists anticipate with enthusiasm most are winter weather events and severe thunderstorm events. WINTER WEATHER ADVICE- Make sure there is enough cold air to support the event. Often the precipitation will occur and end before enough cold air moves in to support winter precipitation. Make sure the POP is substantial enough to warrant mention of the possibility of winter precipitation. Determine how much evaporation will decrease precipitation or prevent precipitation from reaching the ground. Also determine the duration of lifting. If lifting duration is short, often no significant precipitation will occur. Be wary of mentioning significant winter precipitation in the extended forecast. The models often waffle greatly in the extended. SEVERE WEATHER ADVICE- Make sure the convective inhibition is not too strong. A strong capping inversion can prevent severe weather from occurring over part or the entire forecast region. Check dewpoints. Low dewpoints in the PBL (less than 55 F) decrease the severe weather threat significantly. Also make sure the instability and wind shear are adequate to support severe storms. Clear skies versus cloudy skies will make a substantial difference in the instability value. Make sure lifting is adequate to overcome convective inhibition and strong enough to realize the maximum potential of instability release. |