| [--MAIN HOME--] [--ALL HABYHINTS--] |
| The Difficulties of Forecasting Hurricanes and its Effects on The Tampa Bay Area |
Hurricanes are a way of life in the Tampa Bay Area, as it is for every Floridian resident. Tampa Bay Area residents are no different as they are no stranger to hurricane preparedness. For the most part, when it comes to the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1st to November 30th), residents have taken a "hope for the best, prepare for the worst attitude." In recent years however, there seems to be a different mindset, one of "preparing for the best." It seems that some (by no means all!) Tampa Bay residents have lost a bit of faith in forecasted hurricane predictions and have become lax in their preparations, and for a seemingly valid reason. The Tampa Bay has not been directly hit by a hurricane since 1921 (http://query.nytimes.com/). Residents may experience personal, monetary, and even in some cases physical repercussions from inaccurate forecasts. It probably seems to most that forecasting hurricanes is more of a practical art than an exact science, seeing as how there are what seems to be infinite variables to take into consideration. But compared to forecasting days of old, we ARE progressing by leaps and bounds. Still the question remains, how many times are the forecasters allowed to 'cry wolf' before the public stops listening?
Granted there are many factors that will result in a hurricane formation, but there are three fundamentally basic things that need to occur. First, there has to be an area of surface low pressure in the tropics. An area of high pressure would mean an area of subsidence or sinking air; and what we need for a cyclone formation is rising air. Next, the water and air temperature has to be warm enough to provide, in essence, "fuel" for the storm. As water vapor rises and condenses to form storm clouds and the following rain droplets, this latent heat of condensation process allows for the hurricane to "feed" off all the warm water it needs. Lastly, tropical cyclones need to form in an area where there are converging trade winds. These winds allow for even more convergence of air in an area already laden with rising air.
For the most part, Atlantic hurricanes follow the same paths. This is not a coincidence. They are steered by an easterly wind which allows them to move west or northwest at an average speed of about 10 knots. The ones that stay out in the Atlantic usually will take a turn northward around a subtropical high and then get caught up in the westerly flow. Herein, lays our problem and the heart of this discussion. We know how hurricanes form, and we know the reason for there general path. But the problem remains that there is no method of knowing exactly where and when a hurricane will make landfall beyond a few hours if it actually happening. Our current technology and forecasting methods will not allow that to happen. That being the case what do Tampa Bay residents do?
The Tampa, FL alone is home to an estimated 332,000 people (city-data.com, p1), three major interstates, two universities, and an ever growing downtown area. Therefore, when a hurricane is forecasted to strike the area, a vast number of people are affected. A perfect example of hurricane predictions gone terrible wrong took place with the 2006 hurricane season. Granted, when I say "wrong" I don't mean that in the deepest sense. Four hurricanes did in fact strike the state of Florida as they were forecasted to do, but the locations of landfalls were anything but accurate. Hurricane Charley was an example of this downfall. About five hours before landfall, it was forecasted to hit the Tampa Bay area directly. Thousands upon thousands of Bay Area residents were urged to evacuate their homes. A mere two hours before the expected landfall, not only did Hurricane Charley strengthen from a Category 2 storm to a Category 4 storm, it took an unexpected hard turn to the south and slammed in to the counties south of the Tampa Bay area. The picture above shows the paths of four hurricanes that struck the state during the 2004 season. Most of the media made it seem as if a direct hit to the Bay area was all but certain but as we all know, that turned out to not be the case at all. However, Bay News 9, local news network, actually forecasted the hurricane would hit land before it made its way up to the Tampa Bay ("Florida Faces", p1). There was utter confusion due to the mismatched information coming from endless directions. "Do we evacuate or not? Do we board up or not?" Those were some of the questions residents had to ask themselves as the storm drew nearer and nearer.
Because of a wrong forecast, many people in the Tampa-St.Pete area spent money unnecessarily on boarding supplies and evacuation supplies. Residents found themselves stuck in massive traffic jams all around Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. And those who tried to evacuate to inland counties ended up in the eye of the storm. Needless to say, Bay Area residents were not happy to find that the top speeds recorded at Tampa International Airport only reached about 30mph. ("Hurricane Charley", p1).
When there are so many conflicting reports and forecasts it doesn't really seem as if science is involved at all. There is no immanent solution that will solve this forecasting problem. That is why there are forecasting cones set in place to give the public a broader picture of what may potentially happen. If you live along the St.Pete/Clearwater beaches, of course board up if there is a chance of a storm surge. If you live directly along the Tampa Bay, of course have an ample supply of sandbags. I am by no means trying to make the hurricane forecasts seem any less important than they really are. In a way, hurricane forecasters and their ability to interpret satellite, radar, and other data are our only line of defense against these storms. They have led us out of the dark ages when it seemed that these storms popped out of nowhere. It doesn't seem fair, however, that sometimes we are left to make our own judgment call. What I am merely suggesting is that we take these forecasts and predictions exactly for what they are. And what they are, are sciences' best guesses based on past and present meteorological and climatological conditions.
- "Florida stations face coverage challenges during Hurricane Charley"
By Ken Kerschbaumer -- Broadcasting & Cable, 8/23/2004
http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=30694
- "Hurricane Charley will cost Florida billions"
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4179/is_20040827/ai_n11817951